Daniel RogersRound 17 tips
July 25th 2008 05:37
Hello again tippers!
Due to a busy life, i'll be only posting 1 blog a week for the rest of the season.
It's crunch time for a number of teams still eligible to make the 8.
We start at the 'G in front of a predicted capacity crowd with the Hawks and the Cats. The Hawks will be hurting after a shock loss to the Saints last week, while the Cats will be buoyed by a big win over who some thought to be premiership contenders, the Bulldogs.
Geelong by 2 goals
Saturday at the 'G again with Essendon at home to Collingwood. A real must win for the Bombers.
Essendon by 3 goals
Over at Subiaco the Saints pay the struggling Eagles a visit. Now back in the 8 and looking to stay there, the Saints have to win these sorts of games. The Eagles cannot even mathematically make the 8, so they will just be playing for pride in front of their home crowd.
St. Kilda by 5 goals
A big game on Saturday night at the Dome. The Tigers just a couple of wins outside the 8, and the Lions just inside. A Tigers win is a must for the club's finals chances.
Richmond by 3 goals
Swans at home to Adelaide. Sydney looking to hold on to their 4th spot, or even get a bit higher, while Adelaide fight to stop a serious losing streak and get back in the 8.
Sydney by 7 goals
Sunday in Adelaide the Power that overcame the Crows takes on the Dockers that overcame Melbourne. 2 struggling sides coming off important wins, but neither with a legitimate chance of making the finals.
Port Adelaide by 4 goals
Melbourne need a win to get off the bottom rung of the ladder, while their opponents the Kangaroos need to win to keep their grip on the 8.
North Melbourne by 7 goals
And finally, twilight at the Dome, with the Bulldogs and the Blues. The Bulldogs will want to hold on to second spot leading into the finals, while the Blues are still a couple of games outside the 8.
Western Bulldogs by 4 goals
Want to know what your team needs to do to make finals? Here's the possibilities. Each team's highest and lowest possible ladder positions are in brackets.
Geelong (1-7) are the only team 100% assured of a place in the finals. Even if they lose every game from here in they will still have a place in September football.
The Western Bulldogs (1-10) just need to win 2 out of 6 games to make finals. For these teams at the top its all about getting the home finals and the second chance.
Hawthorn (1-11) will need at least 3 wins to hold on to the 8.
For Sydney (1-13) the rate is 5 wins out of 6 to guarentee a spot in the 8.
Collingwood (1-14), Brisbane(1-14), St. Kilda(1-14) and North Melbourne(1-14) aren't guarenteed to stay in the 8 at the moment. Each of these teams just need to match the Crows wins in the last 6 weeks, or are allowed 1 less win than the Tigers and Blues, 2 less wins than the Bombers, 3 less wins than the Power or 5 less wins than the Dockers and they will still be in the 8.
Adelaide (2-16) need to win just one more game than the Kangaroos do across the last 6 rounds to make the 8, but at the same time, win enough to keep them above the Tigers, Blues, Bombers, Power and Dockers.
Richmond (2-16) are in the same boat. They need 2 more wins than the Roos, 1 more win than the Crows, and enough wins to keep them ahead of the Blues, Bombers, Power and Dockers.
Carlton (3-16) need to get 2 more wins than the Roos and Crows, 1 more win than the Tigers and enough wins to stay above the Bombers, Power and Dockers.
For Essendon (4-16) it gets tougher again. They will need 3 more wins than the Roos and Crows, 2 more wins than the Tigers and Blues and enough wins to stay ahead of the Power and Dockers.
Tougher again for Port Adelaide (4-16). 4 more wins than the Roos and Crows, 3 more wins than the Tigers and Blues, 2 more wins than the Bombers, and enough wins to stay above the Dockers.
Believe it or not, Fremantle (5-16) are still a mathematical chance. But they need to win every game and rely on the Roos losing every game, Crows losing every game, Tigers and Blues only winning 1, Bombers only winning 2, and the Power only winning 3. But its possible.
West Coast (9-16) and Melbourne(9-16) can finish as high as 9th or as low as 16th.
This gives you a good appreciation of how close the competition is this season.
Due to a busy life, i'll be only posting 1 blog a week for the rest of the season.
It's crunch time for a number of teams still eligible to make the 8.
We start at the 'G in front of a predicted capacity crowd with the Hawks and the Cats. The Hawks will be hurting after a shock loss to the Saints last week, while the Cats will be buoyed by a big win over who some thought to be premiership contenders, the Bulldogs.
Geelong by 2 goals
Saturday at the 'G again with Essendon at home to Collingwood. A real must win for the Bombers.
Essendon by 3 goals
Over at Subiaco the Saints pay the struggling Eagles a visit. Now back in the 8 and looking to stay there, the Saints have to win these sorts of games. The Eagles cannot even mathematically make the 8, so they will just be playing for pride in front of their home crowd.
St. Kilda by 5 goals
A big game on Saturday night at the Dome. The Tigers just a couple of wins outside the 8, and the Lions just inside. A Tigers win is a must for the club's finals chances.
Richmond by 3 goals
Swans at home to Adelaide. Sydney looking to hold on to their 4th spot, or even get a bit higher, while Adelaide fight to stop a serious losing streak and get back in the 8.
Sydney by 7 goals
Sunday in Adelaide the Power that overcame the Crows takes on the Dockers that overcame Melbourne. 2 struggling sides coming off important wins, but neither with a legitimate chance of making the finals.
Port Adelaide by 4 goals
Melbourne need a win to get off the bottom rung of the ladder, while their opponents the Kangaroos need to win to keep their grip on the 8.
North Melbourne by 7 goals
And finally, twilight at the Dome, with the Bulldogs and the Blues. The Bulldogs will want to hold on to second spot leading into the finals, while the Blues are still a couple of games outside the 8.
Western Bulldogs by 4 goals
Want to know what your team needs to do to make finals? Here's the possibilities. Each team's highest and lowest possible ladder positions are in brackets.
Geelong (1-7) are the only team 100% assured of a place in the finals. Even if they lose every game from here in they will still have a place in September football.
The Western Bulldogs (1-10) just need to win 2 out of 6 games to make finals. For these teams at the top its all about getting the home finals and the second chance.
Hawthorn (1-11) will need at least 3 wins to hold on to the 8.
For Sydney (1-13) the rate is 5 wins out of 6 to guarentee a spot in the 8.
Collingwood (1-14), Brisbane(1-14), St. Kilda(1-14) and North Melbourne(1-14) aren't guarenteed to stay in the 8 at the moment. Each of these teams just need to match the Crows wins in the last 6 weeks, or are allowed 1 less win than the Tigers and Blues, 2 less wins than the Bombers, 3 less wins than the Power or 5 less wins than the Dockers and they will still be in the 8.
Adelaide (2-16) need to win just one more game than the Kangaroos do across the last 6 rounds to make the 8, but at the same time, win enough to keep them above the Tigers, Blues, Bombers, Power and Dockers.
Richmond (2-16) are in the same boat. They need 2 more wins than the Roos, 1 more win than the Crows, and enough wins to keep them ahead of the Blues, Bombers, Power and Dockers.
Carlton (3-16) need to get 2 more wins than the Roos and Crows, 1 more win than the Tigers and enough wins to stay above the Bombers, Power and Dockers.
For Essendon (4-16) it gets tougher again. They will need 3 more wins than the Roos and Crows, 2 more wins than the Tigers and Blues and enough wins to stay ahead of the Power and Dockers.
Tougher again for Port Adelaide (4-16). 4 more wins than the Roos and Crows, 3 more wins than the Tigers and Blues, 2 more wins than the Bombers, and enough wins to stay above the Dockers.
Believe it or not, Fremantle (5-16) are still a mathematical chance. But they need to win every game and rely on the Roos losing every game, Crows losing every game, Tigers and Blues only winning 1, Bombers only winning 2, and the Power only winning 3. But its possible.
West Coast (9-16) and Melbourne(9-16) can finish as high as 9th or as low as 16th.
This gives you a good appreciation of how close the competition is this season.
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